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Aug 02, 2023

Realistic expectations for all 58 Big 12 basketball transfers

Adam Flagler. Gone. Jalen Wilson. Gone. Keyontae Johnson. Gone. Markquis Nowell. Gone. Marcus Carr. Gone. All five of the Big 12’s first-team All-Conference selections either exhausted their

Adam Flagler. Gone. Jalen Wilson. Gone. Keyontae Johnson. Gone. Markquis Nowell. Gone. Marcus Carr. Gone. All five of the Big 12’s first-team All-Conference selections either exhausted their collegiate eligibility or chose to chase their NBA dreams.

They weren’t alone.

All five of the Big 12’s second-team, All-Conference members departed. LJ Cryer (who transferred from Baylor to Big 12 newcomer Houston) and Kansas wing Kevin McCullar are the only All-Big 12 honorees who returned. Thirteen gone. Two back.

That meant the Big 12 had to hit the transfer portal in a major way to make up for the talent withdrawal, and boy, did it ever. Eight of the top-20 players in the 2023 transfer portal cycle have landed at a Big 12 program. There are new faces in big roles all across the league, but the raw talent in the Big 12 is not projected to dip even with all the roster movement.

RELATED: Rival coaches dish on top transfers

What are realistic expectations for each Big 12 transfer? There’s not enough room for each newcomer to be a star. The minutes and respective job descriptions can be complicated to sort out. The summer is when the first rotation drafts are crafted, and the fight for roles gets started. Let's dive in.

Ques Glover, from Samford: Backcourt rotation, potential starter. Glover is a blur. The 6-foot point guard owns a terrific handle, and he keeps the rock on a string even in tight spaces. Dallin Hall is projected to be BYU’s point guard of the future, but Glover provides a veteran who has played a lot of basketball to add much-needed depth at the most important position in the sport. Glover’s efficiency from downtown has slowly ticked up throughout his career, but there’s no doubt Glover is at his best manipulating ball screens and getting two feet into the paint. That pairs well with what Hall brings to the table.

Aly Khalifa, from Charlotte: Frontcourt rotation. Brice Williams (who is transferring from Charlotte to Nebraska) is a personal favorite, but the Khalifa film is really nifty as well. The 6-foot-11, 230-pound big man is one of the top passing centers in the sport. He racked up a 22.0 assist rate and flashed some high-level reads. Khalifa can make you pay on the block, and his 3-point stroke is a legitimate weapon. He drilled 48 3-pointers at a 38% clip in 34 games. Khalifa’s passing paired with Fousseyni Traore’s manchild-like presence in the paint could be a disruptive, high-low combination.

Dawson Baker, from UC Irvine: High-level role player. Baker is a hooper. He plays with no fear and a whole bunch of moxie. The 6-foot-4, 190-pound sniper shot 37% from 3-point range last season, and he made a bunch of tough ones. Baker is an excellent off-ball cutter who will make defenders pay for napping. But he’s got more flavor to his game than just a catch-and-shoot guy. Baker has some wiggle and the knack to finish through contact at an efficient clip. BYU’s backcourt picture has a lot of guys but needed more veterans and more high-floor bucket-getters to survive the Big 12’s gauntlet. Baker does all of it and then some.

Tylor Perry, from North Texas: Starter. Lead guard. Perry is Kansas State’s Markquis Nowell replacement. But he might be just as good, if not better. Both had sky-high usage rates last season, but Perry averaged a ridiculous 1.025 points per possession in pick-and-rolls. Nowell checked in at 0.833. Perry shot 41% on 7.7 attempts from beyond the arc; Nowell shot 35% from 3 on 6.9 attempts. Nowell’s counting numbers were more impressive due to Kansas State’s rapid pace, but Perry has a chance to be tremendous as well. There’s considerable All-Big 12 upside here.

Arthur Kaluma, from Creighton: Starter. If Perry is Nowell’s replacement, then Kaluma is stepping into Keyontae Johnson’s role. Kaluma is really more of a 4 who will likely play a lot of the 3 for Kansas State. It feels like a very big summer for the toolsy wing. If Kaluma’s handle and jumper can just take a step in the right direction, Kaluma can have a ridiculously-productive stud. Kaluma’s effort on the glass cannot be overlooked. K-State should be a terrific rebounding squad when Kaluma, David N’Guessan and Nae’Qwan Tomlin are on the floor together.

Shemarri Allen, from UMKC: Guard rotation. Kansas City was one of the worst teams in college basketball last season, but Allen put up numbers (17.0 points, 5.0 rebounds, 2.7 assists) and parlayed it into a Big 12 landing spot. The 6-foot-4 guard shot a steady diet of tough 2s, but that was his job description to help bail out a lot of possessions. Johnny Dawkins will have much more structure, and Allen may have to tweak his style in a hurry to stick in the rotation. But he’s talented.

Ibrahima Diallo, from San Jose State: Frontcourt rotation, potential starter. Bolstering the rim defense was a huge priority for Dawkins as UCF prepared for a big jump in competition. Insert Diallo who had the ninth-highest block percentage in college basketball last season, according to KenPom. Diallo didn’t play a ton of minutes, but the 7-foot, 220-pound center was extremely impactful on the glass and as a rim protector. UCF will ask him to do more of the same.

Omar Payne, from Jacksonville: Frontcourt rotation. UCF wants a great shot-blocker on the floor for all 40 minutes. Diallo can probably handle around 20. Can Payne fill in the rest of the gaps? He’s bounced around from Florida to Illinois to Jacksonville, but the shot-blocking has been a staple at every landing spot.

Jaylin Sellers, from Ball State: High-level role player, potential starter. There’s plenty to like about Sellers’ game. The rangy, 6-foot-4 guard is a career 44% 3-point shooter who can have a monster impact on the game without the ball in his hands. Sellers developed even more creativity and his comfort as a driver should only increase. Getting to the foul line is so essential to Sellers reaching his full potential. He’s a high-floor offensive weapon right now with plenty of room to grow under a smart coach like Dawkins who knows what to do with shooters.

Antwann Jones, from St. Petersburg Community College: Wing rotation. Jones has been on high-major radars for a minute. He committed to Texas A&M before signing with Memphis. Jones also spent a year at Creighton and Louisiana-Lafayette. This is his last real shot at a legitimate role. The 6-foot-6 wing adds much-needed size and defensive versatility to UCF’s wing rotation. The swing skillset will be if Jones’ 3-point stroke can be a real problem for opposing defenses again.

Marchelus Avery, from New Mexico State: Avery is a pretty fascinating addition. The 6-foot-8, 215-pound forward knocked down 41.8% of his 3s, and he’ll help on the glass. UCF’s pair of centers (Diallo and Payne) aren’t outside threats, so Avery can help UCF trot out four-shooter lineups.

LJ Cryer, from Baylor: Starter. Cryer is one of the top jump shooters in the sport. Period. The 6-foot-1, 190-pound veteran shot 45% from 3-point range in Big 12 play last year. The year before, Cryer drilled 48% of his 3s in Big 12 play. He’s just an assassin who is automatic both off the catch and off the bounce. Cryer has to improve on the defensive end, and he wants to show more of his playmaking, but the barrage of tough shots that Cryer can make look so easy is an incredible resource for Kelvin Sampson and the Houston staff. Cryer can effortlessly replace Marcus Sasser's ridiculous offensive production.

Damian Dunn, from Temple: High-level rotation player, potential starter. Dunn is an ideal fit for everything Houston wants to do on both ends of the floor. Dunn shot 39.2% on catch-and-shoot 3-pointers last season, and he was a menace in transition. At 6-foot-5, Dunn has ideal size and length to guard multiple positions for Houston. The kicker? He earned a ton of on-ball reps last season. Jamal Shead is the point guard. Cryer wants to get more point guard reps. But Dunn can handle the basketball and make decisions on the fly as well. Houston’s backcourt is ridiculously talented and deep.

Day Day Thomas, from Kilgore College: Potential starter. Thomas is a rugged on-ball defender who transformed into a knockdown shooter at the Junior College ranks. If Thomas can be a table-setting, defense-first point guard for Wes Miller from Day One, Cincinnati will be in good shape. But if the offense translates to the high-major level, the equation changes significantly for the Bearcats’ backcourt.

CJ Fredrick, from Kentucky: Potential starter. When he’s healthy, Fredrick is one of the premier shooters in the sport. Fredrick has battled some serious leg injuries, but there’s still considerable upside because of his catch-and-shoot prowess. But Fredrick’s ability to shoot off platform and on the move is unique.

Jamille Reynolds, from Temple: TBD. Reynolds needs a waiver to play right away, but he was a tank for Temple last season, racking up 10 points and 5.4 rebounds per game in just 20 minutes a night. At minimum, Reynolds provides a high-quality piece for Temple’s frontcourt.

Simas Lukosius, from Butler: Starter. Butler’s dreadful season overshadowed the real, tangible jump Lukosius made in his sophomore season. The 6-foot-7, 225-pound wing is an excellent catch-and-shoot weapon who showed a real playmaking knack. Lukosius should be strongly in the mix to be one of Cincinnati’s top scorers because it can use him in so many different ways. Lukosius can operate with the ball in his hands or as a screen-and-pop guy for inverted pick-and-rolls. When he starts converting around the rim at an even higher clip, Lukosius is going to be a nasty cover.

Aziz Bandaogo, from Utah Valley: TBD. If Bandaogo can get the waiver, Cincinnati has nothing to worry about from its center spot. Bandaogo is a game-wrecker on both ends of the court. The bouncy, 7-footer owns a ridiculous catch radius that he uses smartly to haul in lobs or on the offensive glass. But his defensive presence is even more imposing. Bandaogo fortified the back line of Utah Valley’s defense without a problem. Opponents shot a minuscule 45.3% at the rim against Utah Valley with Bandaogo on the floor, according to hoop-explorer. It spiked up to 56.2% when Bandaogo got a rest. Bandaogo is a straight-up killer who has all the tools to be an impactful, low-usage big man in the Big 12.

RayJ Dennis, from Toledo: Starter. Potential lead guard. Dennis came to Baylor to replace Adam Flager’s production, but he’ll do it in a different way. Dennis has an old-school game. The 6-foot-2, 185-pound point guard is comfortable operating out of post-ups, and he was one of college basketball’s top assist men last year while remarkably refusing to turn the basketball over. The jumper is the swing skill set. Dennis was a low-volume, low-efficiency shooter from beyond the arc in each of his first three seasons of college basketball. That flipped last year at Toledo when Dennis drained 51 3-pointers and shot 36.4% from downtown. Will that be sustainable in the Big 12? We’ll see. But Dennis instantly provides a shot of experience to a young, talented Baylor backcourt. Dennis has a monster role with his name written on it.

Jayden Nunn, from VCU: High-level role player. Calling Nunn just a 3-and-D role player is disrespectful. Yes, he’s a good 3-point shooter. Yes, he’s a good defender. But Nunn has plenty more in his bag. He earned nearly 100 pick-and-roll reps last year for VCU, so he’s comfortable making decisions in ball screens. The 6-foot-4, 190-pound junior guard can get two feet in the paint and make plays for others as a secondary creator. The size, shooting and willingness to defend are three strong attributes that help Nunn get on the floor early and often. Baylor’s backcourt is stacked with talent, but Nunn has such a high floor that Baylor will find minutes for him. There’s more than enough to go around in Baylor’s four-guard, roster-construction ethos.

Yanis Ndjonga, from New Mexico Military Institute: Frontcourt depth. Ndjonga was a ridiculously-good rebounder at the Junior College ranks, but he’s got time to grow and improve while Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua and Josh Ojianwuna handle the bulk of the minutes at the 5.

Jameer Nelson Jr., from Delaware: Starter. Lead guard. TCU doesn’t need Nelson to be Mike Miles 2.0, but Nelson can also have a Miles-like impact. Nelson owns an exceptional first step, and he can finish with a bang at the rim. Nelson had a 32% usage rate at Delaware, so he’s comfortable with a heavy load. TCU scored 19.9 points per game last year in transition which ranked No. 3 nationally and No. 1 of all Power Six programs. Miles was a huge piece of that, but Nelson is electric in transition as well. It’s a perfect fit for both parties. Nelson is primed for a stat-stuffing year for a very good TCU team.

Trevian Tennyson, from Texas A&M-Corpus Christi: Backcourt rotation. Tennyson helps solve TCU’s putrid outside shooting display. TCU rated in the 5th percentile nationally in catch-and-shoot efficiency last year, according to Synergy. Tennyson shot over 43% on 203 catch-and-shoot 3s last season. That’s his best way of getting (and staying) on the floor.

Essam Mostafa, from Coastal Carolina: Frontcourt rotation. Mostafa may end up being one of TCU’s sneaky-great additions. The Coastal Carolina transfer averaged 12.4 points and 10.0 rebounds last season thanks to a polished on-the-block game. Mostafa averaged 0.986 points per possession on post-ups last season. He can help TCU right away.

Ernest Udeh Jr., from Kansas: Frontcourt rotation. Udeh is a beast. The former ballyhooed recruit still needs time to develop, but Udeh flashed so many encouraging traits as a freshman at Kansas that add to the hype around what his potential impact might be for TCU. Udeh projects to be an impactful defensive piece right away, and his offensive skill is still rounding into form. But Udeh is another physical presence who will be a legitimate lob threat for Nelson and add a different vertical pop to TCU’s frontcourt rotation.

Avery Anderson III, from Oklahoma State: Backcourt rotation. TCU looks poised to play a lot of four-guard lineups, so there are minutes available for another veteran who has played a lot of Big 12 basketball. Anderson might not start, but he adds another offensive pop with legitimate shot-creation abilities. When healthy, Anderson has been efficient in ball screens (0.825 points per possession in 2021-22), and his ability to get into the paint and draw fouls fits with the ethos of TCU’s backcourt. Anderson is well-schooled defensively and looks like a no-doubt rotation staple.

Warren Washington, from Arizona State: Starter. Washington builds a wall around the rim. It's exactly what Grant McCasland's defense requires. Opponents only shot 48% at the rim against Arizona State when Washington was in the game. Playing with more pass-first guards should help spotlight Washington’s value as a roller. Washington’s 10-point, six-rebound performances can steady the ship for Texas Tech, but his defensive impact will loom so large.

Devan Cambridge, from Arizona State: High-floor role player. Cambridge is a rugged 4-man who can plug a lot of holes for Texas Tech. Washington deserves a lot of credit for Arizona State’s rim defense last year, but Cambridge was also a big piece of that. Cambridge and Washington is an exceptional defensive duo who should help Texas Tech be more than competent on the glass. Cambridge isn’t a high-volume offensive weapon, but he doesn’t have to be for Texas Tech. If he can continue to knock down 33% of his catch-and-shoot 3s and stay persistent on the offensive glass, Cambridge will be on the floor early and often.

Joe Toussaint, from West Virginia: Backcourt rotation, potential starter. A smart, relentless point-of-attack defender like Toussaint is another pivotal part of what McCasland needed to build a sturdy defense. Toussaint is a bulldog who will hound opposing point guards for 94 feet. When he’s on the floor with Pop Isaacs, he can take the top lead guard. Toussaint quietly took a solid step forward offensively in his lone season at West Virginia. Toussaint knocked down 38% of his catch-and-shoot 3s, and that forced teams to actually guard him out to the stripe which opened up more real estate for his teammates. Toussaint might not ever be a plus-finisher in the paint, but you feel him when he checks into the game.

Chance McMillian, from Grand Canyon: High-level role player. McMillian shot 52.9% on his 87 catch-and-shoot 3s last season. Need to see anything else? The 6-foot-3, 185-pound sharpshooter is also very comfortable putting it on the deck and getting to his pull-up jumper. McMillian is likely competing with Kerwin Walton and D’Maurian Williams for rotation minutes.

Darrion Williams, from Nevada: High-level role player, potential starter. Williams projects to be a ridiculously-good wing defender. Toussaint handling the point-of-attack defense with Williams and Cambridge guarding the big wings and Washington protecting the rim is a strong core of sturdy defenders. Williams averaged 1.4 steals per game last season, and he proved to be a fantastic rebounder. Williams gobbled up rebounds from outside of his area, and he could grab-and-go in transition. Oh, and Williams shot 40% on catch-and-shoot 3s. Williams checks off so many boxes for Texas Tech. He won't lead the team in scoring, but Williams could end up being one of Texas Tech's best all-around hoopers.

KyeRon Lindsay, from Georgia: Frontcourt rotation. Lindsay has a very intriguing frame and game. Texas Tech’s old frontcourt pairing of Washington and Cambridge will eat up the lion’s share of the minutes, but Lindsay could operate as the backup at both the 4 and the 5. The bouncy, 6-foot-8 forward does most of his work in the paint, but he has an intriguing lefty jumper that should continue to develop into something real and useful. If Lindsay can toggle back and forth between the 4 and the 5, his value skyrockets.

Jarius Hicklen, from North Florida: Guard rotation. Don’t ask Hicklen to do a ton inside the 3-point stripe. That’s not his game. But the North Florida transfer can be a useful piece for Mike Boynton because he’s a net-stripper from downtown. Hicklen shot 36% from 3-point range last season. 227 of his 315 field goal attempts came from beyond the stripe. Hicklen has to answer the bell on the defensive end, but he’s flashed a real capability to make smart decisions off the bounce. Hicklen had 18 combined assists in his final three games of the season.

Mike Marsh, from Jacksonville: Frontcourt rotation, potential starter. Marsh provides a badly-needed adult to Oklahoma State’s young frontcourt room. Marsh has been a rugged offensive rebounder for each of the past two seasons in the ASUN which makes up for his less-than-stellar efficiency numbers as a post-up presence. Oklahoma State doesn’t need him to be a star, but Marsh needs to gobble up minutes or the Cowboys could really struggle on the glass.

Isaiah Miranda, from NC State: Frontcourt rotation. Miranda picked Oklahoma State because there’s a path to immediate playing time. But Miranda might need some time to fully grow into his body. The 7-foot-1 big man is blessed with ridiculous length, but can he withstand the body-blows from Big 12 centers? Or is he at his best as a help side rim protector? And has the skill started to materialize offensively, or will be continue to be mostly a play-finisher? There’s a lot of questions. Most importantly, Miranda needs to play after a lost 2021-22 season.

Javon Small, from East Carolina: TBD. Jayden Gardner left East Carolina and became a huge piece for Virginia. Tristen Newton left East Carolina and became a lynchpin for a UConn squad that won it all. Oklahoma State is hoping for more of the same from Small who had an incredible sophomore season for East Carolina before suffering a season-ending knee injury. That complicates what Small will be able to bring to the table for Oklahoma State. When healthy, Small is an excellent distributor who lived at the free throw line for East Carolina. But will he have the same burst? How long will it take to get back up to speed?

Jesse Edwards, from Syracuse: High-level starter. When Edwards was on the floor, Syracuse’s 2-3 zone simply didn’t allow shots at the rim. That’s legitimately all because of Edwards’ presence and anticipation. Edwards is the best rim-protector in the Big 12, and he’s a problem on the offensive end now. Edwards has become a reliable post-up scorer, but he’s an elite lob threat and offensive rebounder. Edwards has all the makings to be one of the Big 12’s best transfers and potentially the Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year.

RaeQuan Battle, from Montana State: Potential starter. Battle’s athleticism just overflowed in the Big Sky, and it’ll play in the Big 12, too. The 6-foot-5, 190-pound wing has shot over 35% from 3-point range in each of the past two seasons, but he’s an excellent off-the-bounce initiator who has a pull-up jumper you have to respect. Battle shot 73% at the rim last year, and he has all the tools to be an impactful wing defender for West Virginia right away. Battle will have to embrace less volume, but that should allow him to have more energy use on the defensive end. Battle is primed for a huge season.

Quinn Slazinski, from Iona: Frontcourt rotation. Slazinski fits the profile of a stretch 4-man who should pair very well alongside Edwards. Slazinski drilled 36 treys in 2021-22. He hasn’t been afraid to attack closeouts for one-dribble pull-ups or to eat up space and attack the basket. Slazinski has to knock the rust off after playing just seven games last year, but skilled size is always valuable. West Virginia doesn’t have many 4s that check off the same boxes as Slazinski. But he’ll have to prove himself on the defensive end, and West Virginia might need Slazinski to give it a little more on the glass even with Edwards scooping everything up.

Kerr Kriisa, from Arizona: Starter. With Joe Toussaint off to Texas Tech, Kriisa is the ready-made starting point guard. Kriisa only made seven layups last year, but West Virginia might get enough rim pressure from Edwards, Battle and others to make it not that big of a deal. But Kriisa’s ability to take up space is going to be so important. His shot selection leaves plenty to be desired at times, but he forces you to guard him well beyond the 3-point stripe. Kriisa splashed at least 80 treys in each of the past two seasons. If West Virginia can get Kriisa to slim down on some of the back-breaking turnovers and turn it up on the defensive end consistently, there’s a legitimate path to Kriisa having the best season of his career.

Jeremiah Bembry, from Florida State: Backcourt rotation. WVU’s backcourt is getting pretty full. Battle, Kriisa, Omar Silverio, Jose Perez, Kobe Johnson and Seth Wilson all want to play. Where does that leave Bembry? The 6-foot-6 guard has plus size, but he’s still a big unknown. WVU has a lot of vets to please, but Bembry could force himself into the rotation if he proves to be a viable backup option behind Kriisa at point guard.

Keshon Gilbert, from UNLV: Guard rotation, potential starter. Gilbert just lives in the paint. 64% of Gilbert’s field goal attempts last year came inside the painted area. The 6-foot-4, 190-pound guard is constantly trying to get to the rim or to get to his little eight-foot floater. Gilbert gives Iowa State another guard who can handle running the show both with or without Tamin Lipsey. Gilbert shot over 50% on catch-and-shoot 3s last year, albeit on just 42 attempts. The junior has very good instincts defensively and should have zero issues buying into T.J. Otzelberger’s scheme on that end of the floor.

Curtis Jones, from Buffalo: Guard rotation, potential starter. Jones is the most proven, outside shooter on the roster. Jones drained 69 3-pointers last season and shot 35% from downtown. Iowa State was one of the worst catch-and-shoot teams last year, and that was exacerbated when Caleb Grill got kicked off the team. Jones should step into that floor-spacing role right away. But Jones isn’t just an outside sniper. He has real capabilities to get into the paint for midrange jumpers or fadeaways. Jones’ runner is lethal, and he can get to it often because of how terrified opposing defenses are of his 3-point prowess. Jones has the length Iowa State’s defensive system requires, but he needs to continue to add strength.

Jackson Paveletzke, from Wofford: Guard rotation, potential starter. Iowa State is stacking a lot of smart decision-makers. The Cyclones could trout out lineups of Paveletzke, Gilbert and Lipsey and all three of those guys have played lots of point guard at the collegiate level. They're all effective in ball screens, so Otzelberger can go matchup-hunting with a horde of comfortable ball handlers. Paveletzke is a deadeye shooter from all three levels, and he rated among the top guards nationally in ball-screen efficiency last season (1.071 points per possession), according to Synergy. Consistently getting into the paint against Big 12 defenders will be the next test for Paveletzke to pass, but he was one of the best freshmen in the country last year. There's more than enough room for all three of Iowa State's transfers to all be in the rotation.

Rivaldo Soares, from Oregon: Rotation player. Soares is a long, rangy wing who showed some real promise as a cutter and play-finisher at Oregon. More of that should be on the way at Oklahoma. Soares struggled to find his footing when he tried to create his own offense, but he’s fully capable of being a reliable defensive asset who can give a jolt of offense on certain nights even though his jumper is pretty streaky.

Le’Tre Darthard, from Utah Valley: Backcourt rotation. Darthard has been a reliable role player for each of the past three seasons at Utah Valley. He’s played a ton of ball. That experience will help him become a no-doubt piece of Oklahoma’s backcourt puzzle. Darthard can guard multiple positions, and he’s a career 36% 3-point sniper. But don’t overlook Darthard’s drives. He puts pressure on the rim and shot 148 free throws last season. Rival coaches raved about Darthard’s willingness to sit down and guard. That’ll endear him to Porter Moser in a hot second.

Javian McCollum, from Siena: Starter. Potential lead guard. McCollum has a shot to be a special guard for Oklahoma. The Siena transfer combines speed with a keen understanding of angles and the ability to stop on a dime. McCollum’s dazzling passing knack jumps off the tape, and he’s put the time in to become a reliable, knockdown assassin. There are so many awesome lead guards in the Big 12, but McCollum has a shot to insert himself in a high tier.

Jalon Moore, from Georgia Tech: Frontcourt rotation. Moore is probably the closest thing Oklahoma has to a traditional 4 on its roster. If Oklahoma wants to play four guards, Moore could be on the outside looking in for the starting lineup. But the 6-foot-7, 209-pound forward ripped down 1.8 offensive rebounds in just 20 minutes per game, so there’s a path for a real, tangible role right away. At some point, the 3s have to start dropping for Moore to turn into something more.

John Hugley IV, from Pitt: Starter. The version of Hugley that averaged 14.8 points and 7.9 rebounds is still in there. Oklahoma is banking on a change of scenery helping Hugley get back on the straight and narrow. The opportunity for Hugley is endless. McCollum and Milos Uzan are two of the most-talented guards Hugley will have played with in college. Hugley has to capitalize on the silver-platter looks those two pseudo-point guards generate. But Oklahoma also really needs him to get back to being a straight-up problem in the paint. Two years ago, Hugley averaged 0.909 points per possession on a whopping 232 post-ups, according to Synergy.

Hunter Dickinson, from Michigan: Starter. The expectations for Dickinson are ridiculously high, but the talented 7-footer can live up to all the hype. Dickinson gives Kansas one of the top offensive hubs in the country. Dickinson is an excellent decision-maker on the block who transformed into an outstanding passer. Dickinson has been very efficient in the pick-and-roll game thanks to his soft touch in the paint, and he drilled 42% of his 3-pointers last season on respectable volume. Dickinson needs to be a piece, not the piece defensively, but he can guard elite bigs one-on-one and add a semblance of rim protection. Dickinson is expected to compete for Big 12 Player of the Year. He’s expected to be an All-American. It’s all completely warranted.

Nick Timberlake, from Towson: High-level role player. Shooooooootah. Timberlake nearly made three triples per game while shooting 41% from downtown. But 87 of his 91 3s last year came off catch-and-shoot situations. That’s his entire game from beyond the arc, and it won’t change at Kansas. Timberlake’s counter is a two-dribble pull-up jumper from inside the arc. Timberlake made 105 2s last season, and 55 were off-the-bounce jumpers. The thick 6-foot-4, fifth-year senior was decent around the rim, but his job at Kansas will be to spread the floor, knock down 3s, attack hard closeouts and get to his pull-up and compete on the defensive end. Timberlake is not a ball-stopper which helps him be an ideal fit for Bill Self’s offense.

Arterio Morris, from Texas: High-level rotation player, potential starter. Morris learned what it took to play high-level, perimeter defense last season at Texas. Those lessons learned could be used to hurt Texas in 2023-24. Morris is primed for a significant Year 2 jump even after McCullar opted to return. Morris should instantly be one of Kansas’ best perimeter defenders, but he’ll likely be third on that pecking order behind both McCullar and Dajuan Harris. Morris eviscerating secondary ball-handlers could be easy money for Kansas’ transition attack. But the presence of Harris and Elmarko Jackson likely shifts Morris away from needing to play a lot of point guard. He’ll still have the ball in his hands and make decisions, but it’ll mostly be as a secondary playmaker. Kansas certainly needs Morris to knock down 3s, but his off-the-bounce drives will be ridiculously important to add something different to the Harris-Dickinson ball screen or Dickinson post-up that will be staples of KU’s offensive attack. Morris has the talent to be an awesome role player for Self with room to grow into something even more scarier down the road.

Parker Braun, from Santa Clara: Frontcourt rotation. Zach Clemence is currently slated to redshirt the 2023-24 season, so Braun has little competition for the backup big man minutes. It’ll be interesting if Braun at the 5 is what Self is most comfortable with, or if he’d rather downshift and re-insert KJ Adams at the 5 (like last year) and get four of Kansas’ top-5 guards on the floor (think four of Harris, Timberlake, Morris, Elmarko Jackson and McCullar). Braun’s readiness to be a difference-maker in the Big 12 is the key to all of this. The 6-foot-10, 215-pound, fifth-year senior shot 71% at the rim and was a useful play-finisher for a Santa Clara squad that had two really good guards. Kansas can create open looks around the rim for Braun, but finishing against West Coast Conference bigs and Big 12 beasts is, uh, slightly different.

Max Abmas, from Oral Roberts: Starter. Lead guard. It’s really hard to have a bad offense when Abmas is running the show. Texas’ baseline offense has such a high floor because of the stress Abmas puts on a defense. You have to guard him out to 40 feet. You can’t go under any ball screen, even if it’s at the logo. You can’t lose him in transition. Abmas will eclipse 400 career 3-pointers next season, but his decision-making and ability to get to the charity stripe are excellent parts of his game. Life is easier for everyone else when Abmas is on the floor. Abmas is slated to be one of college basketball’s most-impactful transfers.

Kadin Shedrick, from Virginia: Frontcourt rotation, potential starter. Shedrick left Virginia because he felt like there was more to his game that could be unlocked. Shedrick is arguably one of the top defensive big men in the country and was one of the best overall defenders in the 2023 transfer portal cycle. Opponents shot just 48.3% at the rim against Virginia when Shedrick was in the game, per hoop-explorer. He’s an excellent ball-screen defender with real mobility to hang tough against ball-handlers on the perimeter. Can he play with Dylan Disu? Are the whispers of Shedrick’s smooth jumper real? Can he stop fouling a ton? That all remains to be seen. But Shedrick is a fantastic back-line defender who should be able to withstand the body blows of banging with some of the Big 12’s elite big men. Shedrick should make Disu’s life on the defensive end way easier which helps Disu be even more of a problem for Big 12 defenses on the other end. It should be a very symbiotic relationship between the two talented bigs.

Ithiel Horton, from UCF: Backcourt rotation. Horton has bounced around from Delaware to Pittsburgh to UCF and now to Texas. But there’s one constant at every stop: Horton will make shots. Horton is a career 37% 3-point sniper who will defend and can add some pop on the offensive glass. Horton is a helpful piece who can start at the 3 if Texas doesn’t want to play Dillon Mitchell and the twin towers of Shedrick and Disu. Horton might also be a starter-quality player who happens to come off the bench. He’ll help Texas in many ways.

Ze'Rik Onyema, from UTEP: Frontcourt depth. Onyema is a grinder who will play hard and do the dirty work. Onyema is a willing rebounder, and he quietly averaged a really good 1.012 points per possession on 84 post-ups last season. Onyema will compete for minutes at the 5 and will be a useful depth piece to have if Disu’s injury history flares up again.

Chendall Weaver, from UT Arlington: Backcourt depth. Weaver has to gain a little weight (164 pounds is a little too slight for the Big 12), but he has a chance to be a huge piece for Texas down the road. He might just have to be a little patient. Right now, Weaver can compete with prized freshman Chris Johnson for the fourth guard spot. There’s room for both to get some minutes, but Weaver’s value to Texas is really more centered around what he can bring to the program in two years. Weaver has already used up his one-time, free transfer so he’s locked in to Texas’ roster-construction plans for at least the next three years. That’s a good thing for both sides. Weaver has the explosiveness to be helpful right now, but really good down the road.